Understanding The Plateau.
Practical helps to understanding
what needs to be done to help your church move from plateau or decline to
vitality and growth
Dr. Robert Orr
President California State Christian
University
Dr. Bob Orr |
This post is written to help in understanding the plateau and
what can be done to keep your church thriving on its mission to see our world
transformed by the power of the gospel.
The Life Cycle of The Church (and other
organizations as well)
Right now in America, according to
the latest numbers, American Churches are struggling. 80% of churches are
either plateaued or in decline. An additional 14% are growing but growing so
slowly that they are not keeping up with the population growth of their
ministry area. Church attendance has dropped in the last 25 years from 43% of
the population attending church weekly to 17% today. These are national figures
and there are local churches and communities that defy normal. The bottom line
is we cannot continue to do what we’ve always done and expect a different
result.
The beginning section of this
post will deal with the theory of the lifecycle, and the later part will deal
with how to know if you are approaching a plateau and what to do if you are on
a plateau.
The Normal Life Cycle
Churches for the first 15-20 years
of the cycle are normally growing. Their conversion growth rates are higher,
the excitement of the new, the willingness to risk and change, all contribute
to health and vitality
Churches in the 20-40 year age
range usually are plateaued. Growth tends to come more by transfer than conversion;
the resistance to change begins to grow, institutionalism and traditions grow
and start competing with the values of the earlier years.
Churches more than 40 years old
tend to be in decline. This decline is characterized by a backward focus that
devalues vision, not enough new people are coming in to replace the normal
losses and the traditions already developed are rarely changed. Fully 95% of
churches over the age of 50 are in decline.
The chart below illustrates this
cycle
A Normal Lifecycle |
Observe the chart and note the normal
but not inevitable pattern
Critical Point A.
How churches get started, their
initial vision and leadership have a lot to do with whether the church started
will ever enter this normal time of growth. Knowing what the DNA of health is
and insuring that there is a strategy to insure these critical elements are
included is a primary task in the early months and years. These are sometimes
called healthy systems. Let me outline a few of these:
- A system for attracting new people (Outreach)
- A system of assimilation (Including small group development, visitor retention etc.
- A system for training developing and deploying people in ministry
- A system to develop the stewardship of the constituents
- A Worship system that is conducive to seeing the believer edified and the unchurched drawn to Christ
Critical Point B
The church is still growing but if
you look at the diagram, the rate of growth is starting to slow, meaning the
church is becoming less effective in fulfilling its mission. It’s easier to
make adjustments here than it is to wait until things have slowed or until you
are plateaued. A church that asks and answers critical evaluative questions can
keep the church growing and avoid the upcoming plateau. Changes are going to
become necessary and the level of resistance to change that the congregation
has may make this transition difficult.
Congregations will often say “if
its working don’t touch it”, when the question that should be asked is; “if its
working how could we make it work better’ (1st generation change) or
“Is there a better way of accomplishing the same objective” (2nd
order change).
It is at this juncture paying
attention to the evangelistic values is critical. Evangelism values tend to
erode over time and leaders who want to see the church continue to thrive need
to work hard in this important task. (For additional information on values and
their impact on growth see the article on my blog on values www.drboborr.blogspot.com.
Critical Point C
This point occurs after the church
has been on a plateau for a number of years. The congregation has normally
become older the barriers between insiders and outsiders are felt particularly by
the newcomers. The resistance to change has grown and the evangelism values
although given lip service rarely affect individual or corporate behavior. This
is the point that if a critical evaluation of what is done is not taken the
church may very soon start going into the downside of the cycle. It has been
said that the price paid here is the choice of change or slow death.
Critical Point D
After a church has been on the
downside of the cycle there comes a point at which the diagnosis is that the
church has a terminal illness. The lack of evangelistic passion, the power structures
that prevent change, the irrelevancy of ministries to all but current
participants, and the cutback in the doors of entry.
Lifecycle Observations
· It’s natural not inevitable
This cycle has been seen in churches and other social organizations. It is also well know what the church needs to do to see it's self-reborn to a new season of growth and vitality.
·
Acceleration is possible
Acceleration is possible
A rapid change in the community, or a crisis in the church are just 2 examples of this reality.
· Barriers affect it (75, 200, 400, 800 etc.)
There are natural barriers that tend to be the places where churches get
stuck. For ex· There are natural barriers that tend to be the places where churches get stuck. For example·
·
It’s interruptible
It’s interruptible
Sometimes something that is unexpected such as change of pastors, can change the trajectory of a church either positively or negatively
·
It’s understandable
It’s understandable
It is important for any church facing this cycle to understand that they are not the first church to have travelled this road. The good news is we know not only what do but also what not to do. Because it is understandable that give to all of us hope.
·
It’s Repeatable
It’s Repeatable
There are hundreds of churches that are over 50 years of age that are proof that the cycle is repeatable. No matter where you are on the lifecycle there is hope.
·
There are strategic interventions that affect the lifecycle.
There are strategic interventions that affect the lifecycle.
Strategic interventions can shake to existing paradigm and cause a reevaluation of what we are doing and why. Some of these may include; a change of pastors, a community transition, a relocation of the church etc.
·
The farther along the lifecycle scale you are the more difficult and the longer it takes to change
The farther along the lifecycle scale you are the more difficult and the longer it takes to change
We are all aware that resistance to change increases as we age. What is true for individuals is also true in organizations.
·
Dynamic
Dynamic
The church is a living organization and organism and because of that it has the qualities of life imbedded in it. Church illnesses may need to be cured, problems may need to be addressed, and changes may need to be made but as long as we are, we are!
Signs Your Church Is On The Downside
I have worked with over 3000 congregations and have noticed the following signs that a church is already on the downside of the lifecycle.
For example a church grows quickly to 75 or 200 and then starts a plateau although they would still be considered on the upside of the cycle. If the changes organizationally are not made to help a church move to the next level the church will start the next phase. Peter Wagner notes that churches that don’t have at least 75 people in their first year probably never will have. There are numerous books on this subject and if your church is stuck because of one of these barriers I would recommend getting ahold of one or more and going through it with your leaders.
The church is a living organization and organism and because of that it has the qualities of life imbedded in it. Church illnesses may need to be cured, problems may need to be addressed, and changes may need to be made but as long as were are, we are!
Signs Your Church Is On The Downside
I have worked with over 3000 congregations and have noticed the following signs that a church is already on the downside of the lifecycle.
- Survival behavior as the church and its future are threatened
- A cutback in budget, staff, and programs
- Rapid pastoral changes
- No or few new ministries are launched
- Rise in informal power groups
- A Crisis that results in major loss (i.e. a major donor leaves)
- Increasing conflict over change and direction to take
- Openness and transparency are limited (denial)
The Church Is a Dynamic Paradigm
·
A church’s
“paradigm” defines what the church is and how it operates.
·
That paradigm
- a set of habits, attitudes, and approaches affects everything we do:
·
If you’ve
ever heard the words, “this is how we do things here” you have discovered the
paradigm of the church.
The Pardigm Lifecycle |
·
If we
continue to do what we have always done we will observe that the law of
diminishing returns begins to set in.
·
Like the
lifecycle we can note that whenever there are problems or issues that cannot be
addressed there is a new paradigm that needs to adopted. (A)
·
Again the
best time to introduce the new paradigm is not when the crisis occurs but
whenever there are new problems that the old paradigm does not answer (B)
- If we wait too long the number of problems that the old paradigm cannot solve becomes so great and the resistance to changing it is so strong that the organizations paradigm brings its mission accomplishment to a halt. (C)
The Lifecycle of the Dream
We are aware that the scriptures
admonish us that “without vision the people perish”.
· Vision
answers the question that starts with the Divine. “What would our church look
like (1,3,5 years) if it lived up to God’s expectations” Vision ultimately
comes from Him. Good ideas are good but God ideas are better.
· You cannot
have a clear vision and continue to do what you have always done.
· The fear of
change is the number one vision killer.
· Robert Dale
in his book To Dream Again contends that we need to understand that every dream
has a life and that we need to be in a constant pursuit to assure that we are
on the same page as our true Leader
The Life Cycle Of The Dream |
Lifecycle Conclusions
·
When there is
no dream, and when the paradigm is not longer effective and the organization is
sociologically on the down side of the lifecycle the combination of these
factors we know the fix is not easy as it demands organizational, procedural
changes and a new vision for the future. Until all 3 of these are addressed the
decline will continue
·
If you keep
doing what you have been doing you’ll get more of what you’ve got. Can you live
with that?
·
Time is of
the essence. If not now, when?
Are You Approaching A Plateau?
There is an old proverb that tells
us that preventing a problem is easier than solving one. Once a church has lost
its growth momentum it often takes years to recover. In fact, according to life
cycle research, the plateau is more often followed by a decline than a period
of growth.
There is an interesting
illustration of this principle. When the Shuttle and other rockets are launched
from Cape Kennedy almost 90% of the fuel is spent just getting the Rocket
launched and clearing the launch tower. That’s the price to be paid to overcome
the inertia that has set in. Once however the Shuttle or rocket has cleared the
tower and is now traveling thousands of miles per hour in space, all it takes
is some minor adjustments to alter its course or keep it on course.
When considering the future of
your church there are numerous signs that the church while still in its growth
cycle may be approaching a plateau period. These signs can point out the
remedial issues that need to be addressed before the church enters this period
of plateau. Addressing these issues early will allow the church to continue its
effectiveness in ministry. If you are already in a plateau or even a period of
decline the issues raised here may provide a clue as to some of the issues your
church must face if its future is to be better than it's past.
Top Ten Warning Signs That You Are Approaching a Plateau
Rising median age.
· Lyle Schaller points out that a rising
median age is a sure telltale sign that the church is approaching if not
already in a period of plateau or decline.
· Seeing the median age of members drop
however is harder than wishing it to be so. Generational differences including
preferences regarding style of music, programmatic needs, etc., may demand more
change than many churches are willing to make. It was Freud who pointed out
that people would rather live with the squalor with which they are familiar
than move to a better yet unfamiliar place. Transformation Ministries a Missional
movement used this concept for plateaued churches that we either face the price
of change willingly or we will be forced to change unwillingly through a
crisis.
Rising Median Tenure
· The concept of median tenure refers to
the point in time where 50% of the membership/attenders began attending the
church. The farther that date is from today the more likely it is the church
will either be plateaued or in decline
· Growing churches tend to have that
tenure point around 7-8 years, plateaued churches around 11-12 years, and declining
churches 15 years or more.
· There are practical sociological reasons
why a church when it is primarily composed of people who have been there a long
time will not grow. New persons will be more attracted to a church with a lower
median tenure date. When this rate is higher even if new people visit the
retention rate of visitors returning is normally too low to even replace the
normal losses every church has.
3. Conversion Growth Ratio Direction
· Churches see a normal attrition rate
depending on their size from death, transfer out, and reversion of between 6
for a smaller church to up to 12% for a larger church. The rule of 72, which is
a mathematical formula, states that if you take either your rate of growth or
your rate of decline and divide it into 72 it will give you the number of years
it will take to either double (if it’s a growth rate) or die (a decline rate)
· The Conversion Growth Ratio is a
specific formula that asks how many members did it take to win one person to
Christ in the past year. For example if the church had 100 people and saw 5
first time conversions the ratio would be 1:20. In other words it took the
effort of 20 people to win one person to Christ.
· While there has been some variation
growing churches normally have a ratio of 1:8 to 1:15. Plateaued churches
normally have ratios in the 1:30 to 1:50 range and declining churches are in
the 1:70 plus range. Southern Baptists noted that the average conversion growth
rate for churches over 50 years was 1:88.
· It is important to note that the data on
conversion growth should not be construed as a point in time fact. The
important thing to note is the trend this ratio is taking. It can take a few
years to see if our evangelistic efforts are paying off or if our evangelistic
fervor is waning.
Shrinking Evangelism dollars (total & %)
· Bob Schuler used the illustration of the
10-10-80 principle in teaching his congregation how to manage their money. The
first 10% should be given to God as a tithe and an act of gratitude to Him for all
his goodness. 10% should be invested in your future through savings. If you
don’t invest in your future it creates long term problems that are many time
unsolvable. We should then learn to live with contentment on the 80% left.
· Assuming
all churches give a portion of their money to missions not all churches invest
dollars in their own future. The result of that is their future is put at risk.
Dr. Win Arn |
· Win Arn pointed out that in his
examination of the budgets of hundreds of churches, growing churches invested 10%
of their income on training activities and programs to reach the unchurched
· The pattern of little or no money being
invested in the churches own growth may take time to reverse but like a farmer
who plants no seed we cannot expect a return in the harvest if we invest no
resources in this endeavor.
Stable or shrinking infrastructure
· Infrastructure refers to the number of
groups or places where people can not only be involved but also develop
meaningful relationships with others in the church.
· Some of you have heard the comment “what
good is it to bring new people into the church if we squeeze out the people who
have been here for years”. This is a sure sign the infrastructure has reached
capacity or what some call the saturation point.
· A good and workable ratio is seeking to
have about 7-10 groups for every one hundred people in your congregation. This
gives room for not only the existing congregation but also room for new people.
· One additional caveat is that after
groups have been in existence for more than 2 years they close themselves off
to outsiders. There are a variety of reasons for this but it is a good idea that
is well researched and documented that keeping about 20% of your groups “new”
(that is they have been created in the last 2 years) is a simple way to insure
openness to new person joining the church.
Reduced % of ministry involvement.
Reduced % of ministry involvement.
· To quote Lyle Schaller if a new person
has not accepted a role or task or become part of a small group within the
first year they are already inactive.
· Research done by the Institute of
American Church Growth pointed out that:
o Growing churches averaged 60%
involvement
o Plateaued churches averaged 43%
involvement
o Declining churches had an average of 27%
involvement
· Monitoring the involvement of your
congregation and watching the involvement trend is part of the diagnostic work
that will enhance your ministry.
· A simple philosophical shift will take
the focus off the institution and it’s survival. Instead of asking, “How can we
find somebody to do everything we need done?” instead ask “ How can we find
something for everyone to do?” This will take the focus off the institution and
get it on people; every individual in your church has been gifted and called of
God to service. That needs to be our focus.
Reduced number of visitors.
Reduced number of visitors.
· It’s a truth often ignored but true
none-the-less; “No one joins a church without visiting it first.”
· Most churches have two problems:
o They don’t have sufficient visitors to
replace the normal losses seen annually
o They do not retain a high enough
percentage of the visitors to grow.
· Charles Arn from Church Growth
points out that declining and plateaued churches rarely hold on to more than
10% of first time visitors. Growing churches rarely hold on to less than
20% of their visitors. He also observed that growing congregations have around
5% of their congregation as visitors (1st or 2nd time)
every week. (I’ll do another article at a later date on proven strategies for
visitor retention)
· Developing a strategy that both attracts
more and retains more visitors is critical for any church wanting to maintain
its growth momentum.
Closed power structure.
Closed power structure.
· I had an interesting experience at a
church in New York where I was consulting. The conversation went like this;
Me: “How long
would it take me if I joined this church today to become part of the official
board?”
Response:
“Would you attend regularly?”
Me: “Yes!”
Response and
would you be willing to work in the church and give?”
Me: “Yes, I’d
love to serve and would be more than willing to tithe all I make to help the
church.”
Response: If
you did all that it would probably take 12-14 years.
· One of the needs new persons feel when
they become part of any new organization is to believe that their insights and
opinions really matter.
· People around the church for a long time
believe, rightly or not, that the problem with new people is they are always
trying to change things. To prevent change the easiest solution is to close the
power structure to new people.
· Growing churches on the other hand
believe new people bring a wealth of new ideas and are invaluable in helping
the church achieve its mission and so they open the power structure to new
people.
· Win Arn noted that growing churches had
about 20% of their formal leadership team come from people who had been part of
the church 2 years or less.
· If your power structure is closed it is
a sign that your ministry may become more and irrelevant to the people God
calls you to reach.
Reduction in new program units
Reduction in new program units
· In most churches you can identify
approximately one program unit for every 15 persons. These may include classes,
groups, children’s, youth or adult activities and a broad assortment of other
programs.
· In declining churches what has been
called the “cut-back syndrome” emerges. Fewer and fewer options for involvement
are offered and fewer and fewer people are given a reason to participate.
· Growing congregations are always looking
a new ways to reach the unreached and minister more effectively to people. They
listen to the dreams for ministry that God places in the hearts of His people.
Shrinking Class II involvement
Shrinking Class II involvement
There may be additional factors but if you find 3 or 4 of
these items being true in your church you are headed for a period of plateau.
Fix these issues quickly and you will regain the vibrancy that characterizes
growing churches.
Lyle Schaller’s
10 Steps To Help A Church Of A Plateau
When your church hits a plateau what are the best options to
get it growing again? There are some practical suggestions Lyle Schaller the
Dean of Church Consultants gives that will help you analyze what are the best
options to get your church back on track in the wonderful task of making more
and better disciples.
Before we get to these practical steps I wanted to lay down
a few foundations that are critical for the church that really does want to get
growing again.
The first of these is to understand that the church is both
an organism and an organization. The Church has been described in the Scripture
as an organism and we are a living body of believers. It is also described as
an organization and we are a building that is being put together by the
Master-Builder Himself. These images of the church as both body and building
help us understand that the church has both health problems because it is a
living organism and it has organizational problems because it has structures
that either help or hinder its growth and development.
Very often the mistake that a church on a plateau is trying
to answer is to try to solve an organizational problem with a spiritual
solution or an organism problem with an administrative solution. This violates
a foundational concept that organizations need organizational solutions and
that spiritual problems need spiritual solutions.
Complicating this understanding is that rarely is a problem
so simple that answers in one category or another is sufficient to solve the
problem. Most church issues are a mix of changes that need to be made in both
the spiritual and structural areas.
For example; Let’s assume the diagnosed issue is a lack of
conversion growth and the existing biological and transfer growth rates are
just sufficient to cover the normal attrition common in any church.
If the leadership saw the solution as only organizational
they might get a new evangelism program and find themselves frustrated that it
doesn’t seem to work for them as advertised.
A more comprehensive analysis’s might point out that the
value of evangelism has been eroded over time so that lost people although
mattering to God do not matter to us. It may also point out that very little
prayer for lost persons is part of the personal and corporate prayer of the
church family. Rebuilding this value and crying out to God would be essential
if any program or structural changes in evangelism are to work. Therefore
looking at the issue points out that the solution had a little bit of both the
organic and organizational side.
So as we look at Lyle’s main points it is helpful to
acknowledge that they will work in any church that really wants to grow, and is
willing to do whatever it takes to see that happen
Schaller’s 10 Steps Off A Plateau
1. Use
a “both and” rather than an “either or” approach
· Most persons will accept change that comes as an addition to what
is already begun but will resist the change if it is seen as a replacement of
the familiar way of doing ministry.
Lyle Schaller |
· This characteristic of human behavior explains why churches in an
effort to bridge the generations replace the existing traditional service with a blended service
which inevitably is still to modern for the tradition loving folks and not contemporary
enough for the contemporary loving component.
· Using “both and” increase the scope of your ministry and avoids
most of the anger and angst that change by “either or” is sure to bring
2. Broaden
the base of goal ownership.
· A wise proverb tells us people oppose what they don’t understand.
Increasing the base of persons who have a commitment to the goals of the Church
in its missiological pursuit will result in both a greater enthusiasm and also
a greater participation by the membership.
· Listening to and giving people an opportunity to participate in
the setting of the goals is also a great tool to increase involvement. I have
heard it said is that the difference between good goals and bad goals is based
on who set them. So good goals are my goals and bad goals are your goals.
3. Focus
on the possibilities and opportunities not the problems and limitations
Every church has an abundant opportunity to grow. Looking at who
the unreached persons in a community are will open up a myriad of opportunities
· Every church has problems. Rarely if ever does problem solving
move the church off the plateau. It is the focus on the possibility that drives
an organization forward.
· Talk to any growing church and they will tell you growth brings
with it problems but these problems are welcomed as opportunities to enhance
our effectiveness
4. Concentrate
your planning in the areas where you have control not on the areas you don’t
have control
· The “somebody else” syndrome will paralyze any church quickly.
· If the leaders will take control over what they can do that will
make a difference instead of making excuses as to what they can’t do a great
deal of progress can be made.
5. Monitor
the program to insure people are being given real choices
· The choice most churches give people is “take it or leave it”.
Increasing the options available for people to experience the grace of God will
increase the scope and effectiveness of your ministry
· Some examples might include; adding an additional worship
service at a different time or of a different style, or increasing the
homogeneous appeal of the church by adding ministries that appeal to a new
group of potential disciples.
Encourage tolerance (if not acceptance) of new programs and activities
Encourage tolerance (if not acceptance) of new programs and activities
· Rarely if ever will a leader be able to get total acceptance for
any change. If however the assumption is that I need total acceptance to make
changes then the church will remain plateaued
· Toleration underscores the principle is that people need real
choices and while they might not like everything they recognize that what is
liked and enjoyed may be different for different people.
· It is also a helpful suggestion to institute change for a
specified trial period to see if it really will work. 6-12 months is normal
here. If it works almost everyone will now believe it needs to be continued. If
it did not it gives us an opportunity to discard it or rework it. As a leader
knowing new programs have an evaluation and sunset time built in gives an
additional impetus to insure we give what we are attempting our best effort.
7. Plan and program for specific subgroups of people not the entire
congregation
· Donald McGavran observed that the church by its very nature is
heterogeneous but also having many homogeneous groups within it.
· Simple examples might include old or young, rich or poor, men or
women, married or single, married with children or without. As you can see the
list could go on but it does point out that rarely is a church solely
homogeneous.
· Expanding the appeal by adding additional ministries or
programs that meet the needs of those whose needs are now unmet will increase
the appeal of the church both to its members and potential members.
8. Celebrate
positive accomplishments
· Organizations have a self-image of themselves. That image it built
largely by two factors,
o What they do and the results of what they do
o What is said to them and about them
· Celebrating the accomplishments of what God has done not only
encourages people to do more of it but over time builds a positive self
identity that moves the church from maintenance and trying to hold on to a “We
can do all things through Christ who gives us strength”.
· You have a choice you can either build people up or beat people
up. What you do determines the kind of congregation you will have and the
achievements of that group of devoted followers
9. Identify your strengths and specialize your ministry around them.
9. Identify your strengths and specialize your ministry around them.
· Every church has both strengths and weaknesses. Focusing on what
God has blessed you with (your strengths) makes you a good steward of your
talents and treasure.
· Looking at the few things you can do well and doing them well will
pay dividends in both achievement and self-identity, as you will find God has
uniquely gifted you to do something different and better than the other
churches around you. These gifts are your “Acre of Diamonds” (See Russell
Conwell’s great little book on the subject)
10. Carefully and regularly review the actual purpose of the church
10. Carefully and regularly review the actual purpose of the church
· What you devote your time talent and treasure to tells the real
story of the churches understanding of its mission.
· Jesus told us that where we put our treasure would be the
telltale sign of where our heart was.
· Would a stranger looking only at what you do be able to tell whom
you serve and what cause or purpose you are trying to fulfill.
As you look at these 10 steps Lyle Schaller suggests which
of them spoke most directly to you and your current situation? What could you
do in the next 30-60 days that will make a big difference in the church 6 months
to a year from now?
I deeply believe that God wants his church to grow in every
way. In our love for one another, in our growth as disciples and in our mission
to the lost Christ would have us be fully devoted as his disciples.
My study has shown that the majority of churches who are
plateaued never take the steps to turn things around unless a crisis forces the
issues. Change by choice is always a better way to go.
Conclusion
If you deeply believe that God wants and has provided everything you
need as a church to fulfill the mission before you, never allow the contentment
of meager or no results to deter you. Make the decision you really want to
grow, agree that regardless of the price, you will do what it takes and apply
the principles of growth all for the sake of seeing lost people found.
Never forget as Donald McGavran said over and over again; “it’s God’s
will that His church grow and His lost children are found”